SRI - Singapore Realtors Inc.

07 Nov 2024

EC Market Trends 2024: Price Growth and Investment Insights

Executive Condominiums (ECs) represent a unique segment in Singapore's housing market, appealing to both first-time buyers and upgraders due to their blend of public and private housing features and relative affordability. These hybrid developments have shown steady price growth, driven primarily by limited supply and strategic regulatory frameworks. For example, EC developers are only allowed to begin sales 15 months after securing a site or once foundation works are completed, whichever is sooner. This strategy helps prevent oversupply and supports price stability, ensuring ECs remain a resilient asset class.

Over the past few years, the pricing landscape for ECs has transformed. In 2022, the average price for new ECs stood at $1,329 per square foot (psf). This rose to $1,406 psf in 2023, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.8%. In the first nine months of 2024, the average price reached $1,460 psf, reflecting a more moderate 3.8% rise. These upward trends underscore the high demand for ECs, particularly among young families and upgraders seeking a bridge between public and private housing with long-term value potential.

Demand for ECs remains robust, as evidenced by impressive take-up rates in recent launches. For instance, Altura, introduced in the third quarter of 2023, reached a 95.8% sales rate. Similarly, Lumina Grand, launched in the first quarter of 2024, achieved 83.2% sales. This strong buyer interest reflects a willingness to invest at higher price points, particularly in developments that boast strategic locations and lifestyle amenities. In 2024, half of the EC units sold ranged between $1,500 and $1,600 psf, highlighting buyers' confidence in the value of these projects.

The resale EC market has also gained momentum, particularly for older ECs that have attained privatized status. Units that are over ten years old saw significant price increases, with the average price rising by 15.5% year-on-year to $1,171 psf in 2024. In comparison, newer resale ECs saw a more moderate price increase of 5.7%. Some projects, like The Dew, recorded an impressive 20.2% increase, which may be attributed to nearby new launches and proximity to popular schools. This trend emphasizes the appeal of matured ECs, especially as they become available to a broader pool of potential buyers.

In recent quarters, the price gap between new and resale ECs has narrowed, reflecting a difference of only 6.9% by the third quarter of 2024. Contributing factors include the limited supply of new ECs and the five-year Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) requirement before resale. This narrowing gap presents ECs as a structured, appealing investment, with the potential for value appreciation as they transition to full privatization.

New developments, like Novo Place at Tengah New Town, continue to attract buyer interest. Positioned near the upcoming Jurong Region Line MRT station, Novo Place benefits from enhanced connectivity and strategic location. Given the limited EC supply and successful launches in nearby areas, this development is likely to generate significant interest among potential buyers.

Overall, ECs have maintained their position as a desirable housing choice within Singapore’s real estate market. Their unique status, regulatory-backed supply alignment, and consistent demand from both new and resale markets ensure ECs remain attractive to buyers. Combining affordability, strategic location, and capital appreciation potential, ECs present an enduring appeal for many Singaporeans.

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Prepared By:

Mohan Sandrasegeran

Head of Research & Data Analytics

Email:

mohan@sri.com.sg

25 Oct 2024

HDB Resale Prices Rise 2.7% in 3Q2024 Driven by Larger and Newer Flats

In the third quarter of 2024, the HDB resale market in Singapore experienced strong growth, driven by an increasing preference for larger and newer flats. The HDB Resale Price Index rose by 2.7% in 3Q2024, up from 2.3% in the previous quarter. This brought the total increase for the first nine months of 2024 to 6.9%, significantly higher than the 3.8% rise during the same period in 2023. The price increase was largely due to a higher proportion of transactions involving 4-room and 5-room flats, which have seen growing demand. Additionally, the increased value of newer flats with leases commencing from 2013 onwards has contributed to the overall price growth. These newer flats are commanding price premiums due to their better condition and newer age, pushing overall resale prices higher.

HDB resale volume also saw positive growth in 3Q2024, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.7%. The demand was particularly strong for larger flats, with 5-room flats recording a 13.9% rise in transactions, followed by a 11.8% increase in sales for 4-room flats. In total, HDB resale transactions reached 22,562 units in the first nine months of 2024, compared to 20,188 transactions during the same period in 2023, marking a notable rise in overall sales activity.

The rise in HDB million-dollar resale transactions also underscored the demand for newer flats. In 3Q2024, the number of million-dollar resale flats increased significantly to 331 units, up from 236 units in 2Q2024. Notably, flats with leases commencing from 2013 and onwards accounted for 132 of these transactions, compared to just 80 in the previous quarter. This trend highlights the growing willingness of buyers to pay a premium for newer, well-located flats, further boosting the overall resale market performance.

The outlook for the HDB resale market remains optimistic, supported by strong underlying demand. The October 2024 Build-To-Order (BTO) exercise saw the launch of 8,573 flats across 15 projects under the new classification framework, attracting over 35,000 applicants. With such high interest, a substantial number of potential buyers may face disappointment if they are unable to secure a flat, which could drive them to the resale market as an alternative for immediate housing needs. This spillover from the BTO exercise is expected to bolster the resale market, especially in popular estates, as unsuccessful applicants seek available units.

In conclusion, the third quarter of 2024 has been characterized by rising prices and increasing volumes in the HDB resale market, driven by demand for larger and newer flats, as well as the impact of unmet demand from the BTO exercise. The outlook for the remainder of the year remains positive, with sustained interest expected to drive market activity, though the usual seasonal slowdown may lead to a more stable end to the year. Buyers are encouraged to remain cautious and balance evolving market opportunities with long-term financial sustainability to ensure prudent decision-making in an ever-changing real estate environment.

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Prepared By:

Mohan Sandrasegeran

Head of Research & Data Analytics

Email:

mohan@sri.com.sg

25 Oct 2024

3Q2024 Private Property Market: New Launches Drive 60% Growth in Sales

In the third quarter of 2024, the private property market in Singapore experienced a significant upswing, driven by new project launches and increased buyer optimism. Total new home sales rose from 725 units in the second quarter to 1,160 units in the third quarter, marking a 60% quarter-on-quarter increase. This growth was largely driven by a surge in sales in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR). OCR saw the highest rise, with sales increasing by 72.7%, from 414 units in 2Q2024 to 715 units in 3Q2024. Similarly, RCR sales rose by 70%, reflecting a strong preference for suburban and strategically located properties.

Strategic launches, such as 8@BT, Kassia, and Sora, played a crucial role in driving sales. These projects offered attractive features and pricing, appealing to both homebuyers and investors. Kassia and Sora were among the top-selling projects in OCR, with median prices of $2,052 and $2,153 per square foot (psf), respectively. In the RCR, Pinetree Hill led sales with 88 units sold at a median price of $2,499 psf, highlighting the demand for well-positioned properties offering value for money.

The private property price index, however, showed a slight moderation of -0.7% in 3Q2024, compared to a 0.9% increase in the previous quarter. This decline was primarily attributed to a reduction in high-value transactions, particularly in the Core Central Region (CCR), where fewer properties priced at $10 million or above were sold. Overall, private property prices for the first nine months of 2024 increased by 1.6%, compared to a 3.9% increase during the same period in 2023.

Private resale transactions also showed positive growth, with a 1.5% increase quarter-on-quarter in 3Q2024. A total of 3,860 units were transacted, up from 3,802 units in 2Q2024. For the first nine months of 2024, resale transactions reached 10,351 units, a 21.8% year-on-year increase compared to 2023. This growth has been largely supported by HDB upgraders, who accounted for a significant portion of the transactions. The number of HDB upgraders in the private resale market increased by 20.1% year-on-year, reflecting continued interest in upgrading to private properties despite broader market uncertainties.

Looking ahead, new project launches and a favorable interest rate environment are expected to drive a strong finish for the private home sales market in 2024. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts have improved buyer sentiment, leading to a renewed confidence in property investment. This optimism was evident in the success of the Norwood Grand project, which sold 84% of its units during its launch weekend. If interest rates continue to fall, affordability will improve, potentially boosting demand further.

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for the full report

Prepared By:

Mohan Sandrasegeran

Head of Research & Data Analytics

Email:

mohan@sri.com.sg