17 May 2024
1Q2024 URA/HDB Flash Estimates
Property Insight

In the first quarter of 2024, the private residential index in Singapore moderated to a 1.5% increase compared to the 2.8% rise in the final quarter of 2023. This period, typically marked by seasonal slowdowns due to Chinese New Year and school holidays, saw a reduced number of major new project launches, leading to decreased sales transactions. Despite this, new developments like Lumina Grand, Hillhaven, The Arcady at Boon Keng, Lentoria, and Lentor Mansion drew significant attention, reflecting their unique appeal and strategic locations in the competitive market.

Transaction volumes in the private sector moderated to 3,482 units in the first quarter from 4,334 units in the previous quarter, partially due to the timing of data collection which only covered up to mid-March, not fully capturing the impact of launches like Lentor Mansion. Final data, expected by April 26, will provide a more complete picture of the market dynamics during this period.

Landed property markets remained stable, with a slight decrease in price growth from 4.6% to 3.4%. The high-value segment, particularly properties over $10 million, maintained consistent transaction numbers, hinting at a steady demand in this luxury category. The upcoming residential projects and enhancements in public transportation, such as the Thomson-East Coast Line extension, are anticipated to sustain interest and activity in both new launches and the private resale market, potentially benefiting areas like Tanjong Rhu and Marine Parade.

The public housing sector, represented by HDB resale markets, also experienced subtle growth. Prices in the HDB resale market saw a marginal increase of 1.7% in the first quarter, with a notable rise in transactions from 6,567 in the previous quarter to 6,928. This uptick is partly attributed to the expiration of a 15-month waiting period for private property sellers, enabling a new influx of buyers into the HDB resale market. Additionally, the number of million-dollar HDB transactions surged to 185 in the first quarter, marking a significant increase from both the previous quarter and year-over-year, reflecting a growing demand for larger living spaces. Notably, areas like Sengkang are approaching the million-dollar threshold, exemplifying the rising property values across Singapore.

In summary, while the private residential market saw a slight dip in sales and price growth due to seasonal factors and a lack of new launches, the market remains robust, buoyed by strategic new developments and stable interest in high-value properties. The HDB resale market, conversely, demonstrated resilience and growing appeal, particularly in the premium segment, indicating a broad-based demand for housing across different sectors in Singapore's real estate landscape.

Click here for the full report

Prepared By:

Mohan Sandrasegeran

Head of Research & Data Analytics

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Residual momentum from November's robust developer sales activity carried into December 2024, a typically quieter month for real estate transactions. Developers sold 203 new residential units (excluding Executive Condominiums or ECs), a significant 92.1% month-on-month moderation from November's revised figure of 2,560 units. The moderation can be attributed to seasonal factors, such as the festive period and year-end school holidays, which usually see reduced market activity. 

Despite the lower monthly figures, December 2024 reflected a marked improvement year-on-year, with a 50.4% increase in units sold compared to December 2023. This represents the strongest December sales since 2021, underlining recovering buyer confidence amid stabilizing market conditions. A key contributor to this outcome was the carry-over effect from November's strong sales momentum, sustaining interest even during the traditionally subdued holiday season.

Novo Place, an EC project, led December’s sales with 158 units sold at a median price of $1,647 per square foot (psf), highlighting the sustained appeal of ECs, particularly among first-time buyers and upgraders. Hillock Green and The Myst followed with 19 and 17 units sold, respectively, demonstrating strong demand for projects in the Outside Central Region (OCR). The Myst developers strategically released units in December, capturing buyer interest during a quieter period and maintaining market focus on their project.

Developers are optimistic about early 2025, with anticipated launches like The Orie, Bagnall Haus, and The Collective at One Sophia expected to drive increased activity. These projects are strategically positioned ahead of Chinese New Year to capture market momentum, offering diverse options for first-time buyers, upgraders, and investors. As the market transitions into the new year, the alignment of supply and demand is expected to support continued recovery and buyer interest.

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Prepared By:

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Head of Research & Data Analytics

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mohan@sri.com.sg

 

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GLS Tender Analysis: Future Residential Developments in Bukit Panjang and Tengah

The tender results for the Government Land Sales (GLS) sites at Dairy Farm Walk and Tengah Garden Avenue underscore competitive bidding and robust market interest.

Dairy Farm Walk:

The top bid for this residential site was $504.5 million, translating to $1,020 psf ppr, by a consortium including SNC2 Realty Pte. Ltd. This bid outperformed the second-highest offer by 23.1%, highlighting a strong commitment to develop in the area. Recent GLS projects, such as Dairy Farm Residences and The Botany at Dairy Farm, have shown exceptional sales performance, with nearly 100% unit sales, reflecting high demand in the Bukit Panjang planning area.

The location’s appeal stems from its access to natural spaces, proximity to Dairy Farm Mall, reputable schools, and connectivity to Hillview and Cashew MRT stations. 

Tengah Garden Avenue:

The site, intended for residential use with commercial space on the first floor, received a top bid of $675 million ($821 psf ppr) from a joint venture between Intrepid Investments, CSC Land Group, and GuocoLand. The narrow margin of 0.7% above the second-highest bid underscores intense competition for this pioneering project in Tengah.

This marks Tengah’s first private condominium development, benefiting from a first-mover advantage in Singapore’s inaugural smart and sustainable town. This development is expected to appeal to buyers who value exclusivity, unlike Executive Condominiums (ECs) that face eligibility restrictions. Proximity to the Hong Kah MRT station and integration with Jurong Region Line connectivity enhances its attractiveness, alongside its strategic location near Jurong's second Central Business District.

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Prepared By:

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Email:

mohan@sri.com.sg

 

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District 8 led shophouse transactions with 33 deals, emphasizing its appeal due to its central location and vibrant commercial activities. Other notable districts included District 14 with eight transactions and Districts 1 and 2 with five transactions each, underscoring sustained demand in strategically located areas.

The rental market also showed strength, with total rental value rising from $34.9 million in the first 11 months of 2023 to $37.7 million during the same period in 2024, marking an 8.2% year-on-year growth. This increase reflects robust demand for shophouses as versatile commercial spaces, bolstered by their charm and strategic locations.

Tourism recovery played a pivotal role in boosting the market. International visitor arrivals surged from 12.4 million in the first 11 months of 2023 to 15.1 million in the same period in 2024, a 22.3% increase. This growth supported sectors like accommodation, retail, and F&B, further driving demand for commercial shophouse spaces.

Looking ahead to 2025, the shophouse market is poised for sustained growth. Factors such as anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, Singapore's strong global connectivity, and its positioning as a global business hub are expected to support investor confidence. The enduring appeal of conservation properties, coupled with the continued momentum in tourism, will likely bolster demand. These dynamics position the shophouse segment as a robust and attractive asset class within Singapore’s commercial property market.

Click

here

for the full report 

Prepared By:

Mohan Sandrasegeran

Head of Research & Data Analytics

Email:

mohan@sri.com.sg